There are moments in a country’s economic journey when a National Budget ceases to be a routine fiscal exercise and instead becomes a signal of intent. Botswana’s 2026/2027 National Budget feels like such a moment: measured, deliberate and forward-looking, yet undeniably shaped by the weight of current realities. It invites cautious optimism rather than celebration.
And perhaps that is precisely what our times demand. “But we need to ask ourselves: in today’s prevailing environment - where growth projections improve but household pressures remain tangible - can optimism exist without honesty?”
The Budget’s theme, “A New Era of Economic Transformation and Fiscal Prudence,” is both aspirational and corrective. It recognises that while the country is charting a path toward diversification, digital enablement and export competitiveness, it must do so from a position of fiscal discipline.
As I listened to the calm and calculated delivery of our Minister of Finance, Honourable Ndaba Nkosinathi Gaolathe, as he presented the Budget before the National Assembly on 09 February 2026, I could not help but wonder how, for the financial sector, this signals not a surge of easy opportunity, but a recalibration of responsibility. When Government intentionally shifts from being the primary financier of growth to an architect and enabler, are financial institutions prepared to shoulder more of the execution burden - and to do so prudently?
The Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP) identifies 186 bankable projects with the potential to unlock over P514 billion in investment and create more than half a million jobs by 2036 (Budget Speech, 2026). We see this dynamic daily. Whether it is structuring trade finance for a local agribusiness exporting citrus into new EU markets or supporting a mid-sized manufacturer to expand production capacity through asset-backed lending, the translation from policy ambition to economic activity happens through deliberate financial decisions, and not projections alone.
Yet, numbers do not deploy capital; institutions do. Behind each statistic sits a business plan, a risk assessment, a repayment schedule and, ultimately, a human story. A young entrepreneur seeking seed funding, a manufacturer attempting to expand into regional markets, a renewable energy developer navigating regulatory frameworks. The opportunity is real, but so too are the complexities. And there are indeed complexities we ought to be alive to. The question is not whether growth prospects exist, but whether we can finance them sustainably in a constrained economic climate.
The broader macroeconomic picture underscores this duality. The economy is estimated to have contracted by 2.8 percent in 2024[1], with growth projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2026 (Budget Speech, 2026). Inflation is expected to temporarily breach the upper end of the 3–6% target band before moderating, while the Monetary Policy Rate remains at 3.5 percent (Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy stance referenced in Budget Speech, 2026). Foreign exchange reserves declined from P48.1 billion to P47.4 billion year-on-year, equivalent to five months of import cover (Budget Speech, 2026). These figures are neither alarming nor reassuring in isolation; they simply remind us that recovery is underway, but not yet secure. In such an environment, how do we balance ambition with restraint?
In recent years, we have observed that targeted sector support, for example in renewable energy financing and SME working-capital facilities, often yields multiplier effects far beyond the initial loan value, particularly where digital payment ecosystems reduce transaction friction for smaller enterprises. Financial stability cannot be assumed, after all; it must be continuously engineered through sound credit governance, liquidity management and risk discipline. Yet excessive caution risks suffocating the very growth the nation seeks to cultivate. The role of banking, therefore, is to mediate between confidence and caution - to extend capital where productivity is credible, to support innovation where viability is demonstrable, and to maintain resilience where uncertainty persists.
Nation building is often imagined in visible infrastructure: roads, hospitals, schools. Less visible, but equally foundational, are the financial decisions that enable these outcomes. When a small enterprise secures working capital to employ five additional people, when a farmer accesses export markets through structured trade finance, or when a digital wallet allows a vendor in Maun or Francistown to transact instantly rather than queue for hours, economic dignity expands quietly but meaningfully. Are these not also acts of national development, even if they occur far from parliamentary podiums? Should these not be an area of greater focus as veritable engines of growth?
At Stanbic Bank Botswana, our strategic posture is deliberately aligned to this moment of tempered optimism. Sustainable growth remains our anchor, prioritising sectors that advance diversification while preserving rigorous credit standards. Digital enablement continues to be a central investment, not for novelty but for efficiency, transparency and inclusion. This alignment is evident not only in our credit portfolios but in our continued investment in digital platforms that now enable thousands of customers to transact, save and access financing remotely. It is a shift that reduces nationally while expanding financial inclusion. Beyond this, partnership has become indispensable: collaboration with Government, regulators and private enterprises is what converts policy into performance. In difficult economic periods, partnership is not a convenience; it is a necessity.
Perhaps the most defining feature of the 2026 Budget is its insistence on execution over rhetoric. It is a sobering yet necessary position. It quietly challenges every stakeholder, including financial institutions, to move beyond commentary into contribution. Are we prepared to finance transformation without compromising stability? Can we pursue profitability while preserving purpose? And can we acknowledge economic headwinds without allowing them to dictate our trajectory?
Botswana’s economic future will not be shaped by fiscal frameworks alone, nor by optimism unsupported by discipline. It will not occur in silos nor at the hand of any one institution (even Government). The institutions that succeed will be those able to combine prudence with practical action - financing one viable enterprise, one infrastructure project and one innovation at a time. In this lies both strength and responsibility alike in the collective spirit of industries and as the nation as a whole.
The path from fiscal prudence to financial possibility is neither linear nor guaranteed. It requires realism, resilience and collective intent. For the financial sector, the moment calls for neither exuberance nor hesitation, but a steady confidence, grounded in the understanding that progress, especially in challenging times, is often incremental, deliberate and quietly transformative. Botswana is our home; we drive Her growth.
By Realeboga Phoi, Stanbic Bank Botswana Chief Finance and Value Management Officer (CFVMO)